Move quickly from one page to another within COVID-19 Series from MATLAB Helper:
In this blog, we will analyse the present condition that we are facing. The Pandemic crisis caused by NOVEL Coronavirus brought with it, the toughest challenge: the challenge of survival. A war not just to be fought against the fatal Coronavirus but also against the basic necessities.
Before going deep into it, let us understand what this Coronavirus is. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the strain of Coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a respiratory illness. Colloquially known as the Coronavirus, it was previously referred to by its provisional name, 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). As described by the National Institutes of Health, it is the successor to SARS-CoV-1. SARS-CoV-2 is a positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus. It is contagious in humans, and the World Health Organization (WHO) has designated the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
It had been first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and has since spread globally, leading to an ongoing pandemic. As of the 24th of May 2020, around 5.31 million cases are reported across 188 countries and territories, leading to approx 342,000 deaths. Approx 2.11 million people have recovered from the disease.
According to the World Health Organization, there is no available vaccines nor specific antiviral treatments for COVID-19. On the 1st of May 2020, USA gave emergency use authorization to the antiviral remdesivir for people hospitalized with severe COVID‑19. WHO Management involves the treatment of symptoms, supportive care, isolation, and experimental measures. World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID‑19 outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) on 30th of January 2020 and a Pandemic on the 11th of March 2020. Local transmission of the disease has been occurring in most countries across all the six WHO regions.
Animated graphic showing "flattening the curve" by slowing the spread of pandemics such as Coronavirus, so that health care demands stay within capacity.
Now let us understand the spread of this infectious disease.
The virus primarily spreads between people during close contact, most often via small droplets produced by coughing, sneezing, and talking. The droplets usually fall to the ground or onto surfaces rather than travelling through air over long distances. Usually, people get infected by touching a contaminated surface and then touching their face. It is most contagious during the first three days after the onset of symptoms. However, the spread is also possible before symptoms appear from people who do not show any symptoms.
Recommended preventive measures include hand washing, covering one's mouth when coughing, maintaining distance from other people, wearing a face mask in public settings, and monitoring and self-isolation for people who suspect they are infected. Authorities worldwide have responded by implementing travel restrictions, lock-downs, workplace hazard controls, and facility closures. Many places have also worked to increase testing capacity and trace contacts of infected people.
During this pandemic, our social media got overloaded with all sorts of fake information related to its spread, cause, symptom, prevention, cure, origin, diagnosis, and treatment of the disease. False information, including intentional disinformation, has been spread through social media, text messaging, and mass media, including the tabloid media, conservative media, and state media of nations like China, Russia, Iran, and Turkmenistan. It has also been spread by state-backed covert operations to get panic and sow distrust in few countries. In some countries, like India, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia, journalists are arrested for allegedly spreading fake news about the pandemic.
COVID-19 testing can identify the SARS-CoV-2 virus and includes methods that detect the presence of the virus itself (RT-PCR, iso-thermal macro molecule amplification, antigen) and people that detect antibodies produced in response to infection. Detection of antibodies (serological tests) is often used both for diagnosis and for population surveillance. Antibody tests show what percentage people have had the disease, including those whose symptoms were minor or who were asymptomatic, but might not find antibodies in someone with a current COVID-19 infection since antibodies might not show up for weeks. An accurate death rate of the disease and therefore the level of herd immunity within the population are often determined from the results of this test. However, the duration and effectiveness of this immune reaction are still unclear.
Although no vaccine has completed clinical trials, there are multiple attempts ongoing to develop such a vaccine. In February 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) said it didn't expect a vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative virus, to become available in but 18 months. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) – which is organizing a US$2 billion worldwide fund for rapid investment and development of vaccine candidates – indicated in April that a vaccine could also be available under emergency use protocols in but 12 months or by early 2021. On the 4th of May 2020, the WHO organised a telethon to boost US$8 billion from forty countries to support the rapid development of vaccines to stop COVID-19 infections, also announcing the deployment of a world "Solidarity trial" for simultaneous evaluation of several vaccine candidates reaching Phase III-IV clinical trials.
COVID‑19 drug development is that the research process to develop a preventative vaccine or therapeutic prescription that might alleviate the severity of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‑19). Internationally during May 2020, several hundred drug companies, biotechnology firms, university research groups, and health organisations were developing 159 vaccine candidates and 293 potential therapies for COVID‑19 disease in various stages of pre-clinical or clinical research. By late April, some 330 clinical trials were ongoing worldwide to gauge potential therapies against COVID-19.
Now we will be using MATLAB as our helping tool to model the situation by using the approach of SIR Modelling. Read our next blog on SIR Modelling of COVID-19.
We have used data untill 31st May 2020 for all these analysis. We have seen some approaches to modelling diseases such as COVID-19 through MATLAB. We have found essential characteristics within this process. We have done Data Analysis and Data Extraction and included a reliable source for the COVID-19 data. We have used preprocessing to extract a subset of the collected data and organise the data accurately. We have done Data Modelling with model construction, i.e. finding the best model that fits the COVID-19 pandemic. We have done the calculation of model parameters using real collected data and finally done the Data Visualisation. All these steps were essential, and luckily, MATLAB has so many functions and tool to use in the given scenario.
Now summing our analysis and coming to a definite conclusion, India's COVID-19 case tally climbed from 100 to one lakh in just 64 days as per the data sourced from the Union Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW). On comparing this with global data, sourced from Worldometers, it has been found out that India's COVID-19 growth rate is more than double the number of days as compared to Colombia.
Our COVID-19 codes and analysis have been made for educational and research purpose. We have shown different approaches of Pandemic Modelling for each state and the accuracy of result is not guaranteed for real-life situation. We wish for early end of this pandemic. Now it's in our hands; we need to take our responsibilities & take proper precautions.
Now let's have a quick view of the precautions.
If you have been facing the symptoms of Cold and Cough or the one's shown with COVID-19, then self-isolate yourself with home quarantine for 14 days. So stay home stay safe; this is the best way you can contribute to the betterment of the nation.